As former President Donald Trump’s influence continues to shape Republican politics nationwide, New Hampshire’s GOP faces growing internal divisions between traditional conservatives and Trump-aligned activists. Long seen as a purple state with a mix of moderate and libertarian-leaning voters, New Hampshire is now contending with a political identity test that could reshape its leadership.
Despite voting for Democratic President Kamala Harris by a slim margin in 2024, New Hampshire’s Republican base remains largely favorable to Trump policies and candidates. This dynamic has left moderate Republican leaders attempting to maintain local appeal without alienating a party base aligned with Trump.
Governor Kelly Ayotte, elected in 2024, exemplifies this balancing act. While her administration includes positions aligned with Trump-era reforms, such as overseeing a Commission on Government Efficiency modeled after a now-defunct federal agency, she has also distanced herself from key aspects of Trump’s agenda. In October, Ayotte declined to support a proposal to redraw congressional districts in favor of Republicans, citing procedural concerns during an ongoing census. She also publicly disagreed with the Trump administration’s decision to rescind $80 million in public health funding, though she expressed an understanding of the rationale.
Ayotte has taken credit for influencing federal policy reversals, including restoring education funding previously cut by Trump officials. She has also emphasized a New Hampshire-first approach in her leadership. “She tends to her own backyard,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, describing Ayotte as a figure rooted in a more traditional form of Republican governance.
Still, her reluctance to fully embrace redistricting has prompted speculation about a primary challenge. Trump ally Corey Lewandowski, who holds a senior position in the Department of Homeland Security, has reportedly considered challenging Ayotte for the governorship. Though Lewandowski has not confirmed his intentions, national party figures have suggested Ayotte’s moderation could provoke action from Trump’s base. Local analysts remain skeptical about Lewandowski’s chances, noting his limited popularity in the state and previous failed campaigns.
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said Republican leadership in the state has undergone a notable shift since 2024. “The last stand of the never-Trumpers was in 2024 when they got behind Nikki Haley,” Smith said. “But the voters go for the winner.” He pointed to a declining presence of moderates within the party’s leadership structure, even as independent voters continue to make up the largest voting bloc in the state.
Statewide polling shows Ayotte maintains moderately strong approval ratings, hovering between 47 and 53 percent. However, with Trump enjoying broad support among Republican primary voters, Ayotte’s position may be tested further if MAGA-aligned competitors gain traction.
Meanwhile, the retirement of Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in 2026 has set off another high-stakes contest. Former Senator John E. Sununu, a known Trump critic, is expected to run for the open seat. He could face primary opposition from Scott Brown, the former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts and Trump-era ambassador, who has expressed openness to a second Senate bid. Brown has highlighted his loyalty to Trump and suggested he would welcome a formal endorsement.
Sununu, by contrast, has publicly blamed Trump for Republican losses in recent election cycles and faces a challenge in reconciling his message with the expectations of GOP voters. Smith believes Sununu has the advantage in the early stages, based on voter familiarity and a platform grounded in small-government conservatism. Still, Sununu’s opposition to Trump could become a liability in a party where approximately 70 percent of members continue to support the former president.
Political observers say the Senate race may reveal more about the party’s direction than the governor’s contest. “It will be very interesting to see how John Sununu can make the argument to his fellow Republicans that conservative doesn’t necessarily mean Trump,” Scala said.
The Republican intraparty debate reflects broader tensions in state politics. Former New Hampshire Attorney General Thomas Rath said the GOP must strike a delicate balance between appealing to moderate voters and satisfying a pro-Trump base. “At the moment, I see [MAGA’s] control as complete and absolute,” he said, but cautioned that governing from the political center has historically brought Republicans electoral success in the state.
As both Ayotte and Sununu attempt to maintain traditional Republican footing in an increasingly Trump-driven era, some question how long they can hold that ground. “They’re doing the Trump dance — they don’t want to be too close, but they don’t want to get too far away,” Smith noted.
For now, New Hampshire Republicans remain at a crossroads, navigating between their state’s legacy of moderation and the national party’s rightward push. Whether that balance can hold will be tested in the coming electoral cycles, particularly as Washington politics continue to directly impact New Hampshire communities and voters.
