The Secret Art of Election-Calling
Very few Americans actually believe in psychic powers, but in the days preceding November 2, it sure seemed like many people were playing Ms. Cleo. Formulas, matrices, and spiritual revelations – some championed by serious academics, others offered as the revealed wisdom of Nigerian mystics – became the fodder of newspapers and cable television. But, what happened to the predictions offered by these methods once the official election results were tallied? They were largely forgotten about, with very little post-election analysis of their accuracy. Here is a run-down of the methods, histories, and accuracy of the most recent election forecasts.
THEORIES FROM ACADEMIA
The Fair Model: The most famous academic election predictor belongs to Ray C. Fair, a Yale professor of economics. Fair’s 1978 paper, “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,” contains an equation that predicts the outcomes of presidential elections based on the state of the economy. Fair derived the equation using data from the presidential elections of 1916 through 1976, and it provides correct outcomes for all of them. The model has correctly predicted five of the six elections from 1980 through 2000 (it incorrectly predicted re-election for George H. W. Bush in 1992). This year, the model predicted a sizeable victory – 57.7% of two-party votes – for President Bush. The actual figure was 51.6%, meaning that, although Mr. Fair got the candidate right, his model was, for this election, extremely inaccurate.
Other Models: There are plenty of other mathematical models, many of which were strikingly accurate in this election. A conference of the American Political Science Association, held in September, brought together seven models, six of which predicted a definite popular-vote victory for Bush (and one of which predicted 49.9% of the two-party vote going to Bush). Problematically, however, five of these models predicted landslide victories for Al Gore in 2000.
THE SOMEWHAT PLAUSIBLE
Height Theory: Since the advent of television made a direct comparison of presidential candidates’ heights possible, the taller candidate has almost never lost the popular vote. Prior to 2004, there were two exceptions to this rule: 6’1” George McGovern lost to 5’11½” Richard Nixon in 1972, and 6’0” Gerald Ford lost to 5’9½” Jimmy Carter in 1976. Al Gore, 6’1”, lost the Electoral College to 5’11” George Bush, but he did win the popular vote. This trend seemed to bode well for 6’4” colossus John Kerry .
Presidential Futures Betting: In a strange, online stock market, electors could bet real money against each other for “shares” of the candidate they thought was going to win. According to the Los Angeles Times, “In the previous four elections, traders reportedly came within 1.5% of the real voting margins.” However, on Election Day itself, erroneous exit polling, which predicted a huge win for Kerry, caused traders to assume that Kerry was going to win; on November 2nd, they unwittingly piled money on him.
Scholastic News: The children’s magazine has polled its readers on their presidential preferences since the 1940 election, and in all but two elections (Dewey vs. Truman in 1948 and Nixon vs. Kennedy in 1960) the children’s preferred candidate has been elected. This year’s polls went to Bush, with 52 percent of the vote, very close to the actual popular vote figure of around 51 percent. (Two other children’s polls gave Bush even wider margins of victory.)
GRAB BAG
First Lady Bake-Off: Since 1992, all wives of Democratic or Republican presidential candidates have sent cookie recipes to Family Circle magazine; readers then bake both recipes and vote on their favorites. This year, Laura Bush’s oatmeal chocolate chunk recipe beat Teresa Heinz-Kerry’s pumpkin spice recipe by a 2-to-1 margin, garnering 67% of votes cast, indicating a victory for the male Bush, as well.
Special note: In a surrealist twist, reports surfaced that the losing recipe did not actually belong to Mrs. Heinz-Kerry. She had originally submitted a recipe called “Yummy Wonders,” which the Family Circle staff found impossible to make. Without asking her permission, a staff aide to Mrs. Heinz-Kerry then sent in the pumpkin cookie recipe, provoking Mrs. Heinz-Kerry’s ire and prompting her to issue the following conspiracy theory: “Somebody at my office gave that recipe out and, in fact, I think somebody really made it on purpose to give a nasty recipe…”
Catapulted Pumpkins: Pumpkins dressed as the presidential and vice presidential candidates were flung from a catapult. The Bush-Cheney pumpkins flew farther, indicating a Bush win.
Royal Blood: Burke’s Peerage, a British listing of the aristocracy, asserts that the presidential candidate with the most English royal blood almost always wins the presidency. This year it was Kerry, who apparently is distantly related to Queen Elizabeth I, among many others.
Sly’s Mom and The Family Pets: Sylvester Stallone’s mother claims her dogs are psychic. According to the Los Angeles Times, “In July 2000, the clairvoyant canines of Sylvester Stallone’s mother telepathically told her Al Gore would lose by ‘a couple hundred votes.’ In 2003, they also correctly predicted Schwarzenegger would handily win California’s recall.” They also predicted a Bush victory, but placed the margin of victory, rather unrealistically, at 15%.
The Redskins: Since 1936, the NFL Washington Redskins’ last home game before Election Day has correlated to the outcome of the election: if the Redskins win, so does the incumbent party. Washington lost to 28-14 to Green Bay, forecasting a Kerry victory.
Halloween Masks: Bush masks outsold Kerry masks, forecasting a second term for Bush. This has been an accurate predictor since at least 1980.
Aliens and The Weekly World News: Since 1992, prior to election time, the News has “reported” election predictions offered by Earth’s intergalactic neighbors. Thanks to this unique window into American politics, the News staff correctly predicted both of Bill Clinton’s victories in 1992 and 1996, Bush’s win in 2000, and Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ascension to California’s governorship. The November 1st issue gave Bush the victory.
My Mom: A few months ago, she predicted a Bush victory. But then she was really upset when it happened, indicating some return to hope in the intervening months. The jury may still be out.
